Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4135 · ORD → TUL
departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 11:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−39 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −39 pts in 24h
−39 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −30 pts in 24h
−30 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.