Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4135 · TUL → ORD
departs 12:19 PM CT · arrives 2:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 13%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↓
12pm departures from TUL are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.