MQ 4138 · DSM → PHX

departs 5:43 PM CT · arrives 6:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4138 · DSM → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?