Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4151
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4151 · ORD → MHK
departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±8 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MHK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to MHK?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MHK that day
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MHK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.74 in
MHK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.