MQ 4153 · IAH → PHX

departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 7:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4153 · IAH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?