MQ 4153 · PHX → IAH

departs 12:33 PM MT · arrives 5:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4153 · PHX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?