MQ 4164 · ORD → ORF

departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 6:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.99 in

ORF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4164 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?