MQ 4167 · DFW → LEX

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.18 in

LEX (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4167 · DFW → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?