Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4181 · BHM → ORD
departs 6:22 AM CT · arrives 8:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
BHM is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.