Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4188
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4188 · DFW → ATW
departs 8:07 PM CT · arrives 10:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 11%
Sat 10/10 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
ATW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.