Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4190
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4190 · ORD → TVC
departs 9:35 AM CT · arrives 11:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TVC that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.88 in
TVC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.