Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4190
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4190 · TVC → ORD
departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 1:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at TVC that day
↓
TVC is quiet at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.28 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.81 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.