MQ 4204 · CRQ → PHX

departs 8:59 PM -03 · arrives 6:18 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CRQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4204 · CRQ → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?