Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4219 · ORD → ROC
departs 9:03 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.