MQ 4253 · BWI → ORD

departs 2:18 PM ET · arrives 3:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±18 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4253 · BWI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?