Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 4254 · DFW → BMI
departs 9:01 PM CT · arrives 11:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Fri 10/9 12%
Sat 10/10 25%
Sun 10/11 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BMI?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
BMI (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.