MQ 4257 · AMA → DFW

departs 5:04 AM CT · arrives 6:22 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from AMA are usually not late

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4257 · AMA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?