MQ 4277 · RAP → DFW

departs 6:30 AM MT · arrives 10:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±11 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4277 · RAP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?