Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 4281 · ORD → TUL
departs 10:05 PM CT · arrives 12:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±11 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.87 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.