MQ 4309 · DFW → LIT

departs 3:39 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.11 in

LIT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4309 · DFW → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?