Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4330
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 4330 · SPI → ORD
departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 4:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±18 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave SPI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SPI that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SPI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,267 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.57 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.