OH 5017 · PHL → ORF

departs 11:13 AM ET · arrives 12:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5017 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?