OH 5018 · RIC → PHL

departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from RIC are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5018 · RIC → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?