OH 5102 · YQB → PHL

departs 1:57 PM EDT · arrives 3:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YQB

↓ Other factors

↓ 1pm departures from YQB are usually not late

Weather at each end

YQB (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5102 · YQB → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?