Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5189 · PHL → PVD

departs 1:07 PM ET · arrives 2:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PVD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5189 · PHL → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?