OH 5310 · GRR → PHL

departs 7:27 AM ET · arrives 9:31 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 7am departures from GRR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.54 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5310 · GRR → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?