Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5394 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5394 · PHL → SDF

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5394 · PHL → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?