Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5394 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

OH 5394 · SDF → PHL

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5394 · SDF → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?