OH 5409 · MEM → PHL

departs 6:12 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5409 · MEM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?