OH 5478 · PHL → DSM

departs 10:39 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5478 · PHL → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?