Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5553 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

OH 5553 · PHL → LEX

departs 8:32 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LEX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5553 · PHL → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?