OH 5643 · DFW → SBN

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±2 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.74 in

SBN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5643 · DFW → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?