OO 3015 · ACV → SEA

departs 3:18 PM PT · arrives 5:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ ACV is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

ACV (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3015 · ACV → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?