OO 3112 · SBA → SAN

departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 4:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3112 · SBA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?