OO 3114 · SBA → SAN

departs 5:56 AM PT · arrives 7:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SBA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SBA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3114 · SBA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?