OO 3115 · SEA → MFR

departs 11:27 AM PT · arrives 1:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MFR?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3115 · SEA → MFR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFR?