OO 3209 · SMF → SAN

departs 10:45 AM PT · arrives 12:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3209 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?