OO 3388 · SAN → FAT

departs 2:24 PM PT · arrives 3:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3388 · SAN → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?