OO 3464 · SAN → AUS

departs 8:04 AM PT · arrives 1:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip2.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3464 · SAN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?