OO 3490 · SFO → SAN

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 12:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3490 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?