OO 3508 · TPA → AUS

departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
35%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip2.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3508 · TPA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?