OO 3764 · YVR → SEA

departs 3:39 PM PDT · arrives 4:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 3pm departures from YVR are usually not late

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3764 · YVR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?