Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 3853 · SBA → SLC
departs 4:50 PM PT · arrives 7:51 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 9/30 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.