Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 3853 · SLC → SBA
departs 3:00 PM MT · arrives 4:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.