Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 3860 · DTW → ELM
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 9/30 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.