OO 3861 · BUF → DTW

departs 12:03 PM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3861 · BUF → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?