OO 3945 · BNA → AUS

departs 6:48 PM CT · arrives 9:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3945 · BNA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?