OO 3964 · DTW → MBS

departs 4:36 PM ET · arrives 5:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MBS more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MBS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MBS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ MBS usually runs smoothly

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.23 in

MBS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3964 · DTW → MBS

Odds over time

How late will it get to MBS?