Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4043
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 4043 · SEA → SMF
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.