Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4043
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 4043 · SMF → SEA
departs 7:41 PM PT · arrives 9:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.